Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Using Fibs in the Direction of the Daily Trend

Students Question:
I would enter at 1.3600, place a stop at 1.3400 and sell at 1.4000. Does this seem reasonable?


Instructor's Response:
Good work on the 1:2 Risk Reward Ratio.

While your understanding of Fibs is good and the Fib line that you have drawn is valid, the first point we as traders must take into consideration is the direction of the Daily trend and how to use Fib levels to get us into a trade in that direction.

The higher probability trade will be to wait for the current downtrend to bottom out and stall. Then draw a Fib line from the Swing High to the Swing low so we can identify a potential fib retracement level for a short entry on the pair.

Take a look at the second chart below for a visual...
chart 2 8 10 a

chart 2 8 10

After this current bearish move ends, using Fib levels, we would wait for the pair to retrace into the "sell zone" and stall at one of the Fib levels. Then a short position could be taken with a stop above the highest penetration of a Fib level by price.

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   THE BIG SIX

Close
%
Change

3x1

7x5
Minor
Trend
Major
Trend
Trend Reading
 AUDUSD - Aust Dollar / US Dollar0.8647− 0.420.86720.8729Bearish
 EURUSD - Euro / US Dollar1.3649− 0.201.37041.3762Bearish
 GBPUSD - British Pound / US Dollar1.5584− 0.351.56831.5755Bearish
 USDCAD - US Dollar / Canadian Dollar1.0757+ 0.451.07101.0678Bullish
 USDCHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc1.0732+ 0.081.06971.0671Bullish
 USDJPY - US Dollar / Japanese Yen89.253+ 0.0289.39289.684Bearish
   ALL OTHERS
 AUDCAD - Aust Dollar / Canadian Dollar0.9299    0.000.92920.9334Neutral
 AUDCHF - Aust Dollar / Swiss Franc0.9277− 0.360.92800.9311Bearish
 AUDJPY - Aust Dollar / Japanese Yen77.170− 0.4177.49078.262Bearish
 AUDNZD - Aust Dollar / New Zealand $1.2655+ 0.551.26001.2552Bullish
 CADCHF - Canadian Dollar / Swiss Franc0.9973− 0.380.99820.9985Bearish
 CADJPY - Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen82.944− 0.4483.43483.926Bearish
 CHFJPY - Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen83.147− 0.0883.52683.908Bearish
 EURAUD - Euro / Australian Dollar1.5782+ 0.221.58001.5762Neutral
 EURCAD - Euro / Canadian Dollar1.4679+ 0.241.46821.4709Bearish
 EURCHF - Euro / Swiss Franc1.4649− 0.121.46681.4678Bearish
 EURDKK - Euro / Danish Krone7.4441− 0.017.44457.4446Bearish
 EURGBP - Euro / British Pound0.8756+ 0.130.87380.8731Bullish
 EURJPY - Euro / Japanese Yen121.819− 0.20122.482123.241Bearish
 EURNOK - Euro / Norwegian Krone8.1654− 0.198.17998.1815Bearish
 EURNZD - Euro / New Zealand Dollar1.9975+ 0.721.99081.9815Bullish
 EURSEK - Euro / Swedish Krona10.1550− 0.2110.172110.1611Bearish
 GBPAUD - British Pound / Aust Dollar1.8020+ 0.071.80771.8055Bearish
 GBPCAD - British Pound / Canadian $1.6763+ 0.101.67991.6839Bearish
 GBPCHF - British Pound / Swiss Franc1.6725− 0.271.67961.6842Bearish
 GBPJPY - British Pound / Japanese Yen139.094− 0.35140.127141.026Bearish
 GBPNZD - British Pound / New Zealand $2.2805+ 0.612.27722.2673Bullish
 NZDCAD - New Zealand $ / Canadian $0.7344− 0.480.73760.7417Bearish
 NZDCHF - New Zealand $ / Swiss Franc0.7327− 0.840.73620.7405Bearish
 NZDJPY - New Zealand $ / Japanese Yen60.940− 0.8761.49662.198Bearish
 NZDUSD - New Zealand $ / US Dollar0.6828− 0.940.68820.6950Bearish
 SGDJPY - Singapore Dollar/Japanese Yen62.665− 0.1162.89063.223Bearish
 USDDKK - US Dollar / Danish Krone5.4535+ 0.215.43185.4097Bullish
 USDHKD - US Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar7.7708+ 0.017.77027.7689Bullish
 USDNOK - US Dollar / Norwegian Krone5.9814+ 0.025.96715.9439Bullish
 USDSEK - US Dollar / Swedish Krona7.4405+ 0.017.42447.3798Bullish
 USDSGD - US Dollar / Singapore Dollar1.4237+ 0.141.42071.4171Bullish

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