FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The fall in the US Empire State
manufacturing index in September to a 3.5 year low of -10.4, from
-5.9 in August, is probably overdoing some of the gloom.
Nonetheless, industry is clearly struggling to cope with the
overseas slowdown.
The headline index is derived from a separate question on general business conditions and is prone to swings in optimism/pessimism. A weighted average of the sub-indices, which mimics the way the ISM index is calculated, is a more robust indicator of actual trends. This average did fall, however, though from only from 0.0 to -1.0. That was largely due to a plunge in the new orders index, to -14.0 from -5.5, and a fall in the employment index, to +4.3 from +16.5.
According to the Analyst Team at Capital Economics, "That leaves this survey broadly consistent with the national ISM manufacturing index nudging down a touch in September, from August's 49.6. In other words, industrial output is hardly growing at all, but it is not plunging, as the headline index of the Empire State survey would appear to suggest."
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.
The headline index is derived from a separate question on general business conditions and is prone to swings in optimism/pessimism. A weighted average of the sub-indices, which mimics the way the ISM index is calculated, is a more robust indicator of actual trends. This average did fall, however, though from only from 0.0 to -1.0. That was largely due to a plunge in the new orders index, to -14.0 from -5.5, and a fall in the employment index, to +4.3 from +16.5.
According to the Analyst Team at Capital Economics, "That leaves this survey broadly consistent with the national ISM manufacturing index nudging down a touch in September, from August's 49.6. In other words, industrial output is hardly growing at all, but it is not plunging, as the headline index of the Empire State survey would appear to suggest."
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.
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